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Reverse-Engineering the 2012 Campaign

This is serious

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There's some important news you need to know about. It's a lot of new information, so stay with me here. From an article published this morning in Politico:

"Republican super PACs and other outside groups shaped by a loose network of prominent conservatives -- including Karl Rove, the Koch brothers and Tom Donohue of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce -- plan to spend roughly $1 billion on November's elections for the White House and control of Congress, according to officials familiar with the groups' internal operations.

"That total includes previously undisclosed plans for newly aggressive spending by the Koch brothers, who are steering funding to build sophisticated, county-by-county operations in key states. POLITICO has learned that Koch-related organizations plan to spend about $400 million ahead of the 2012 elections -- twice what they had been expected to commit."

It's important to realize that none of this includes what the Romney campaign and the Republican National Committee intend to raise and spend -- including potentially millions of Romney's own personal fortune that he can spend on his campaign:

"The $1 billion in outside money is in addition to the traditional party apparatus -- the Romney campaign and the Republican National Committee -- which together intend to raise at least $800 million.

"The Republican financial plans are unlike anything seen before in American politics. If the GOP groups hit their targets, they likely could outspend their liberal adversaries by at least two-to-one...

"The consequences of the conservative resurgence in fundraising are profound. If it holds, Romney and his allies will likely outraise and outspend Obama this fall, a once-unthinkable proposition."

This isn't just some theory they have about how they might win in November. They have honed this playbook and they know it works:

"Republicans have taken one big lesson away from campaigns conducted to date in 2011 and 2012: outside money can be the difference-maker in elections.

"It was outside money from casino magnate Sheldon Adelson that single-handedly kept Newt Gingrich afloat against Romney. A super PAC spending surge fueled by Wyoming mutual fund guru Foster Friess was credited with powering Rick Santorum to an upset win in the Iowa caucuses. ...

"Restore Our Future, the pro-Romney super PAC, spent twice as much on the air as the campaign did in the thick of the primaries: Through March, the campaign had put $16.7 million into TV, while ROF shelled out $33.2 million. ...

"Now Republicans are applying this approach -- on steroids -- to the remainder of the campaign..."

One thing the article makes clear, and which, when I talk to and email with lots of you, I'm not sure everyone completely appreciates, is that this election will be fought under different rules than last time:

"It's important to step back for a moment to understand the currents racing through the money chase right now. Republicans, back in the era of soft money, dominated fundraising, thanks in large part to big business donors. But when soft money was outlawed in 2002, a lot of business donors got uneasy about feeding their money through outside groups. Many sat out. ...

"By the time 2008 rolled around, Obama and the Democrats were rolling over Republicans in the race for campaign cash raised in limited chunks, and Obama largely discouraged big-money outside efforts. Things have changed rapidly -- and, in some respects, radically -- since then.

"First, Citizens United made it easy and less risky for rich donors to get back in the game. Second, a subsequent lower court case paved the way for the creation of super PACs, giving mega-donors arguably the most effective vehicle for funding ads in the modern campaign finance era."

These people are trying to buy our democracy and the White House to serve their narrow, ideological -- and often secretive -- agenda, and use millions in anonymous donations to do it.

So if you're wondering why we keep sending you emails about tomorrow's fundraising deadline, I'm not sure how I can explain it any more clearly than that.

I just don't want you or any Obama supporter to wake up disappointed on the first Wednesday in November saying, "How did that happen?" -- because if we're going to lose, this is how it's going to happen.

This is serious. Please give now:

[url]

More soon.

Messina

Jim Messina

Campaign Manager

Obama for America

Contributions or gifts to Obama for America are not tax deductible.

This email was sent to: address | Unsubscribe

Subject: A billion-dollar fund to beat President Obama

From: info@barackobama.com

Sent: May 30, 2012, 4:58 p.m.




There's some important news you need to know about. It's a lot of new information, so stay with me here. From an article published this morning in Politico:

"Republican super PACs and other outside groups shaped by a loose network of prominent conservatives -- including Karl Rove, the Koch brothers and Tom Donohue of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce -- plan to spend roughly $1 billion on November's elections for the White House and control of Congress, according to officials familiar with the groups' internal operations.

"That total includes previously undisclosed plans for newly aggressive spending by the Koch brothers, who are steering funding to build sophisticated, county-by-county operations in key states. POLITICO has learned that Koch-related organizations plan to spend about $400 million ahead of the 2012 elections -- twice what they had been expected to commit."

It's important to realize that none of this includes what the Romney campaign and the Republican National Committee intend to raise and spend -- including potentially millions of Romney's own personal fortune that he can spend on his campaign:

"The $1 billion in outside money is in addition to the traditional party apparatus -- the Romney campaign and the Republican National Committee -- which together intend to raise at least $800 million.

"The Republican financial plans are unlike anything seen before in American politics. If the GOP groups hit their targets, they likely could outspend their liberal adversaries by at least two-to-one...

"The consequences of the conservative resurgence in fundraising are profound. If it holds, Romney and his allies will likely outraise and outspend Obama this fall, a once-unthinkable proposition."

This isn't just some theory they have about how they might win in November. They have honed this playbook and they know it works:

"Republicans have taken one big lesson away from campaigns conducted to date in 2011 and 2012: outside money can be the difference-maker in elections.

"It was outside money from casino magnate Sheldon Adelson that single-handedly kept Newt Gingrich afloat against Romney. A super PAC spending surge fueled by Wyoming mutual fund guru Foster Friess was credited with powering Rick Santorum to an upset win in the Iowa caucuses. ...

"Restore Our Future, the pro-Romney super PAC, spent twice as much on the air as the campaign did in the thick of the primaries: Through March, the campaign had put $16.7 million into TV, while ROF shelled out $33.2 million. ...

"Now Republicans are applying this approach -- on steroids -- to the remainder of the campaign..."

One thing the article makes clear, and which, when I talk to and email with lots of you, I'm not sure everyone completely appreciates, is that this election will be fought under different rules than last time:

"It's important to step back for a moment to understand the currents racing through the money chase right now. Republicans, back in the era of soft money, dominated fundraising, thanks in large part to big business donors. But when soft money was outlawed in 2002, a lot of business donors got uneasy about feeding their money through outside groups. Many sat out. ...

"By the time 2008 rolled around, Obama and the Democrats were rolling over Republicans in the race for campaign cash raised in limited chunks, and Obama largely discouraged big-money outside efforts. Things have changed rapidly -- and, in some respects, radically -- since then.

"First, Citizens United made it easy and less risky for rich donors to get back in the game. Second, a subsequent lower court case paved the way for the creation of super PACs, giving mega-donors arguably the most effective vehicle for funding ads in the modern campaign finance era."

These people are trying to buy our democracy and the White House to serve their narrow, ideological -- and often secretive -- agenda, and use millions in anonymous donations to do it.

So if you're wondering why we keep sending you emails about tomorrow's fundraising deadline, I'm not sure how I can explain it any more clearly than that.

I just don't want you or any Obama supporter to wake up disappointed on the first Wednesday in November saying, "How did that happen?" -- because if we're going to lose, this is how it's going to happen.

This is serious. Please give now:

[url]

More soon.

Messina

Jim Messina

Campaign Manager

Obama for America

Contributions or gifts to Obama for America are not tax deductible.

This email was sent to: address | Unsubscribe