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Reverse-Engineering the 2012 Campaign

Emails Sent on Sept. 10, 2012

Obama for America
12:19 p.m. ET
BREAKING: We closed that gap



News broke last night that the Romney organization raised $X million in August, and we raised $X million.

Many people counted us out and said we'd never be able to top them again -- you proved them wrong. Thank you.

We also learned that they spent more than $X million in August -- $X million more than they raised. That money largely goes not to grassroots offices or organizers, but to an advertising assault on Barack Obama that their own campaign describes as "carpet-bombing."

These kinds of overwhelming numbers confirm the grim reality that the cash advantage they built up since April means they can continue to outspend us even as we close the fundraising gap in the final two months of this election.

I am personally counting on you to keep this thing as close as we can.

Give $X or more today to keep Barack Obama in the game:

[url]

Thanks for everything. So proud of this campaign.

Messina

Jim Messina Campaign Manager Obama for America

--------------------------------------------------------------------- Paid for by Obama for America

Contributions or gifts to Obama for America are not tax deductible.



You've done this campaign proud.

In August, you proved the Washington conventional wisdom wrong and showed the cynics what happens when you bet on anonymous millionaires instead of everyday Americans working together.

For the first time since April, we outraised Governor Romney and the Republicans. It cannot be the last.

Keep it up -- give $X or more to keep closing the gap in September:

[url]

Barack Paid for by Obama for America

Contributions or gifts to Obama for America are not tax deductible

8:21 a.m. ET
I'll be damned

Obama - Biden --

After three months of being seriously outraised, we outraised Romney and the Republicans $X million to $X million in August.

That is absolutely incredible, team. Congratulations.

Let's take a moment and savor what's possible when we decide to do something -- and then let's get right back to work.

Why? Because the other side's spending will continue to be unprecedented.

Just last week, the Romney campaign promised a post-convention spending blitz against President Obama -- a "carpet bomb" in one adviser's words. A Romney-Ryan official compared the offensive to the "daisy cutter" bombs used in the Iraq War. And last night, the Romney campaign also confirmed that it spent $X million last month, $X million more than it raised.

This kind of spending confirms a grim reality that became clear as they outraised us each month from May through July -- they were building up a cash advantage that would allow them to blanket the airwaves with negative ads even if we did close the fundraising gap.

Don't get discouraged.

We can and will keep it up, one donation at a time. Make yours now to keep this grassroots campaign ahead.

If this was apples to apples between their campaign and ours, we'd be in a great place.

But this year, it's our side vs. their side, plus hundreds of millions in super PAC and outside money being funneled into this election by people like Karl Rove, casino mogul Sheldon Adelson, and the oil billionaire Koch brothers.

Is that the way it should work? No. But could it flip the outcome of this race? Absolutely.

These groups have one real goal: Spend whatever it takes to defeat Barack Obama. They don't care about ordinary Americans having a say in this election. They want to drown us all out.

Recently, we learned that on the final day of the Republican National Convention, Karl Rove brought together 70 of the most powerful donors in the Republican Party to ask for more money for the final two months. According to a journalist in the room, "Rove spoke almost exclusively about defeating Barack Obama and retaking control of the White House. There was sparse praise for Mitt Romney -- either as a candidate or as a future leader and policy maker."

Think about that: They're relying on 70 donors -- united not by support for Mitt Romney, but by hatred of Barack Obama -- to take down the President. Compare that to our side: In August alone, 1,170,000 supporters made a donation to support Barack Obama and Democrats across the country.

If I know anything about this campaign, and about our grassroots supporters, it's that we don't take too kindly to any special interests telling us to sit down and be quiet.

So don't.

Take our momentum from August, and build off it. Pitch in $X or more to keep the lead through these final 57 days:

[url]

Great month.

Messina

Jim Messina Campaign Manager Obama for America

Paid for by Obama for America

Contributions or gifts to Obama for America are not tax deductible.

Obama - Biden

Huge news:

We finally closed the gap. We outraised Mitt Romney and the Republicans $X million to $X million in August.

Unbelievable. After three straight months of getting beat and not by a small margin more than 1,170,000 supporters made a donation to close the gap.

We can't let up for one second. These August numbers don't reflect outside group fundraising or spending and in that category we're still getting thrashed.

Right before the conventions, we were being outspent by super PACs alone in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Virginia, and Wisconsin. That margin was more than 2 to 1 in Florida, Iowa, and North Carolina.

Please donate $X or more today, and let's build on our momentum.

We recently learned Karl Rove is rounding up the most powerful Republican donors to give all they've got to beat Barack Obama.

And it's clear the Romney campaign has been building up a cash advantage that would allow them to blanket the airwaves with negative ads even if we did close the gap. Last week a Romney-Ryan official compared their latest ad campaign to the "daisy cutter" bombs used in the Iraq War. Another adviser to the campaign said their goal from now to Election Day is to "carpet bomb" President Obama and Vice President Biden.

After all our hard work over the past 17 months, I'll be damned if the Romney campaign, Karl Rove, the Koch brothers, and a handful of anonymous billionaires "carpet bomb" the President and end up deciding this election for millions of Americans in the last 57 days.

We just proved we can go head to head with Romney and the Republicans and win. That can't stop now.

This will be a tight race to the end. Donate $X or more today:

[url]

Together we're proving that ordinary Americans not special interests or super PACs will decide this election. I'm proud to be a part of this campaign, and even more determined to make sure our hard work translates into a win for President Obama in November. I hope you feel the same way.

Thanks for all you're doing.

Messina

Jim Messina Campaign Manager Obama for America

Paid for by Obama for America

Contributions or gifts to Obama for America are not tax deductible.

11:04 a.m. ET
I'll be damned

Obama - Biden --

Huge news:

We finally closed the gap. We outraised Mitt Romney and the Republicans $X million to $X million in August.

Unbelievable. After three straight months of getting beat -- and not by a small margin -- more than 1,170,000 supporters made a donation to close the gap.

We can't let up for one second. These August numbers don't reflect outside group fundraising or spending -- and in that category we're still getting thrashed.

Right before the conventions, we were being outspent by super PACs alone in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Virginia, and Wisconsin. That margin was more than 2 to 1 in Florida, Iowa, and North Carolina.

Already, more than 3 million grassroots donors have stepped up to make sure they can't drown us out. According to our records, you weren't among them. Are you going to let this campaign go by without joining in?

Stand up and be counted -- donate $X or more today to help build on this momentum.

We recently learned Karl Rove is rounding up the most powerful Republican donors to give all they've got to beat Barack Obama.

And it's clear the Romney campaign has been building up a cash advantage that would allow them to blanket the airwaves with negative ads even if we did close the gap. Last week a Romney-Ryan official compared their latest ad campaign to the "daisy cutter" bombs used in the Iraq War. Another adviser to the campaign said their goal from now to Election Day is to "carpet bomb" President Obama and Vice President Biden.

After all our hard work over the past 17 months, I'll be damned if the Romney campaign, Karl Rove, the Koch brothers, and a handful of anonymous billionaires "carpet bomb" the President and end up deciding this election for millions of Americans in the last 57 days.

We just proved we can go head to head with Romney and the Republicans and win. That can't stop now.

This will be a tight race to the end. Donate $X or more today:

[url]

Together we're proving that ordinary Americans -- not special interests or super PACs -- will decide this election. I'm proud to be a part of this campaign, and even more determined to make sure our hard work translates into a win for President Obama in November. I hope you feel the same way.

Thanks for all you're doing.

Messina

Jim Messina Campaign Manager Obama for America

Paid for by Obama for America

Contributions or gifts to Obama for America are not tax deductible.

6:44 p.m. ET
You proved them wrong



Just when the pundits and everyone else thought they knew the equation in this race -- you're changing it.

I just learned that, for the first time since April, we closed the gap. We outraised Mitt Romney and the Republicans.

We can't let it be the last time.

More than 3 million Americans now own a piece of this campaign -- in August alone, more than 1.1 million people stepped up to make a donation.

Let's close that gap for good. Show what we're capable of with a donation of $X or more:

[url]

What an incredible week.

Barack

--------------------------------------------------------------------- Paid for by Obama for America

Contributions or gifts to Obama for America are not tax deductible



Just when the pundits and everyone else thought they knew the equation in this race -- you're changing it.

I learned today that, for the first time since April, we closed the gap. We outraised Mitt Romney and the Republicans.

We can't let it be the last time.

More than 3 million Americans now own a piece of this campaign -- in August alone, more than 1.1 million people stepped up to make a donation.

Let's close that gap for good. Show what we're capable of with a donation of $X. Because you've saved your payment information, your donation will go through immediately:

QUICK DONATE: $X

QUICK DONATE: $X

QUICK DONATE: $X

QUICK DONATE: $X

QUICK DONATE: $X

Or donate another amount:

[url]

What an incredible week.

Barack

Paid for by Obama for America

Contributions or gifts to Obama for America are not tax deductible



Just when the pundits and everyone else thought they knew the equation equation for this fall's elections you're changing it.

I learned today that, for the first time since April, we closed the gap. Democrats outraised Mitt Romney and the Republicans.

We can't let it be the last time.

More than 3 million Americans now own a piece of this movement in August alone, more than 1.1 million people stepped up to make a donation.

Let's close that gap for good. The Obama Victory Fund can accept contributions up to $X. Show what we're capable of with a donation today:

[url]

What an incredible week.

Barack

PAID FOR BY OBAMA VICTORY FUND 2012, A JOINT FUNDRAISING COMMITTEE AUTHORIZED BY OBAMA FOR AMERICA, THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE, AND THE STATE DEMOCRATIC PARTIES IN THE FOLLOWING STATES: CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, AND WI. Contributions or gifts to Obama Victory Fund 2012 are not tax deductible.

The first $X from a contributor to Obama Victory Fund 2012 will be allocated to Obama for America, designated for the general election. The next $X from a contributor will be allocated to the Democratic National Committee. Any additional amount s from a contributor will be divided among the State Democratic Party Committees as follows, up to $X per committee and subject to the biennial aggregate limits: OH 24% , FL 15% ; WI 12% ; IA 10% ; NV 10% ; VA 9% ; CO 7% ; NC 7% ; PA 3% ; and NH 3% . A contributor may designate a contribution for a particular participant. This allocation formula may change if following it would result in an excessive contribution. Contributions will be used in connection with a Federal election, may be spent on any activities of the participants as each committee determines in its sole discretion, and will not be earmarked for any particular candidate

Romney for President
7:33 a.m. ET
Newhouse MEMO: The State Of The Race



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Please see below memo from Romney Campaign Pollster Neil Newhouse on the state of the race.

Andrea Saul Press Secretary Romney for President, Inc. [url] Romney Memo

MEMORANDUM TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Neil Newhouse, Romney for President Pollster

RE: State of the Race

DATE: September 10, 2012

Don't get too worked up about the latest polling. While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly. The reality of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama Presidency, and Mitt Romney will win this race.

In his acceptance speech, President Obama did not offer any solutions for the millions of Americans unemployed or underemployed. But his convention speech was not the only big letdown to voters, as Americans also dealt with yet another dismal jobs report last week. President Obama is the only president in modern American history to stand before the American people asking for re-election with this many Americans struggling to find work. The key numbers in this election are the 43 straight months of 8% or higher unemployment, the 23 million Americans struggling to find work, and the 47 million Americans who are on food stamps.

Today, there is no question: Americans are not better off than we were four years ago, and that is why President Obama has struggled in this race. The truth is that some of President Obama's allies are claiming victory, but others are acknowledging the unsustainable position in which they find themselves. This is evidenced in a recent quote in The New York Times by an Obama Administration official saying, "It's certainly not what I would call the position we wanted to be in at this point in the race...He's going to have to make the case that we wouldn't even be at 8 percent if it weren't for him."

Consider the following points: The Obama Economy: The stakes are very high in this election, and voters understand the future of our country is on the line. This may be lost on those living within the hyper-political world in and around the Beltway, but it is not lost in communities in battleground states. In short, the Romney-Ryan campaign understands Americans struggling in the Obama economy will determine the outcome of the race, and once the preponderance of information about the President's failed policies - combined with Mitt Romney's vision to strengthen the middle class - are communicated, our nation will move in a different direction. All Signs Point to a Tight Race: Those watching the daily tracking polls know that, while the President has seen a bounce from his convention, his approval has already begun to slip, indicating it is likely to recede further. In eight states, Pollster.com's reporting of the most recent statewide polls puts the margin between the two candidates at less than three points, virtually guaranteeing a tight race. Next, the battlefield has actually expanded, not contracted. Note that Wisconsin is now in play and our campaign is now up with ads in that state, while the latest poll numbers from the Albuquerque Journal in New Mexico show the race closing there. And this tightening is not an anomaly. Consider the traditional Democratic strongholds of New Jersey and Connecticut, won by President Obama in 2008 by margins of 15 points and 22 points, respectively. In both states, Pollster.com's reporting of the most recent statewide polls puts Obama's lead at only seven points in each of these states. In North Carolina, fresh off of hosting the Democratic National Convention, the Obama campaign is laying the groundwork for a stealth withdrawal. In a state the President won by a mere 14,000 votes in 2008, all one has to do is look at the Obama campaign's television buy in the state to understand how they view their chances there. The Obama campaign's North Carolina television buy has dropped 35% compared to June, and they have run more than twice as much advertising over the past two weeks in Rochester, Minnesota hitting a small slice of Iowa , than they have in any North Carolina market. Historical Data: Political campaign historians will recall President Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by a near double digit margin late in the fall in 1980. In that race, the voters made their decision based on the key issues confronting the nation and it determined the outcome. On the economy, the most important issue of this race, Mitt Romney leads by 51%-45%, according to the most recent CNN/ORC poll. Targeted Campaign: The Romney-Ryan campaign is running deeply local and targeted efforts in each of the states focusing on the voter groups that will make the difference on Election Day. Anyone asserting a "one-size-fits-all-campaign" effort is being put forward is simply misinformed, as evidenced by the 15 different ads released by the Romney Ryan campaign this past Friday and now running in nine states, including Wisconsin. New Money Advantage: All of this is not possible without resources, and the Romney-Ryan campaign and the Republican Party have a real advantage. In August alone, the Romney Victory effort raised more than $X million, marking the third straight fundraising month of more than $X million, putting us on a very strong financial footing for the final two months. Energy and Enthusiasm: CNN/ORC's most recent polling shows that 62% of Republicans are "extremely" or "very" excited about this election, while only 56% of Democrats report being "extremely" or "very" excited. This Republican enthusiasm advantage has manifested itself in an unprecedented and historic grassroots effort that will have a significant impact on turnout in battleground states on Election Day. For instance, as of today, Victory volunteers have already knocked on more doors than during the entire 2008 campaign. 2.72 million in 2012 through September 8 compared to 2.43 million overall in 2008. Romney's Ground Game: During last weekend's "Super Saturday," we crossed the 20 million volunteer voter contact threshold. Also, the Romney campaign knocked on more doors last week than in any week during the 2008 campaign. More than 55,000 volunteers have knocked doors or made phone calls for Victory this year and that number is growing by the week. And volunteers have collected person-to-person identification information on nearly 1.7 million swing voters in battleground states thus far. And the numbers are even more startling when one looks at individual states. For instance, in Ohio alone, five times more phone calls and 28 times more door knocks have been made than at this time in 2008. This past Saturday, more than 100,000 doors were knocked on by Victory volunteers in the Buckeye State. And in Wisconsin, five times more phone calls and 72 times more door knocks have been made than at this time in 2008. And the list goes on and on. Mitt Romney will be the next President. The outcome of this race will ultimately be determined in favor of Governor Romney because he has the better leadership skills, the better record, and the better vision for where he wants to take the country. These advantages are being fueled by the commitment and determination of volunteers and voters to change direction and move our country on a path toward economic growth and job creation. In short, the combination of having the superior candidate, being in a margin-of-error race with an incumbent President, having a cash advantage, and having an unprecedented grassroots effort and a winning message on the economy ensure that Americans will make a change in leadership in Washington on November 6.

1:39 p.m. ET
Congratulations

Romney-Ryan [url]

Congratulations to the field team and volunteers for contacting over 20 million voters and knocking on more doors so far than in all of 2008! Let's keep it up - donate today and show your support.

[url]

Rich Beeson Political Director Romney for President, Inc.