How the NSA’s Claim on Thwarted Terrorist Plots Has Spread
In the months since revelations about NSA surveillance began, intelligence officials and members of Congress have claimed that the agency's efforts have thwarted 54 terrorist attacks. But a review of official statements shows the NSA has been inconsistent about how many plots have actually been thwarted and what the role the spying programs played. | Related article »
Inconsistent Statements on How Effective Surveillance Has Been
“Contributed to Our Understanding”
In speeches, television appearances and his testimony to Congress, NSA chief Keith Alexander has been relatively consistent about what the NSA’s surveillance programs have accomplished. They “contributed to our understanding” of 42 terror plots and 12 cases of material support to terrorism — what Alexander has referred to as “54 different terrorist-related activities.”
“Thwarted 54 Terrorist Plots”
But an NSA slideshow that bears Alexander’s name credited the NSA’s spying with foiling 54 terror plots or attacks — a much different claim that “contributing to our understanding” of 54 terror events. At least six members of Congress, the House Intelligence Committee website, three television networks, and the New York Times have made similar statements, as has President Obama.
NSA
“NSA's programs have contributed to understanding and disrupting 54 terror-related events”
Full Quote: “NSA's programs have contributed to understanding and disrupting 54 terror-related events, 25 in Europe, 11 in Asia and five in Africa, and 13 in the United States.”
Gen. Keith Alexander (Sept. 26, 2013, testifying before the Senate Intelligence Committee)
“54 ATTACKS THWARTED”
Full Quote: “25 in EUROPE, 13 in U.S., 11 in ASIA, 5 in AFRICA. 54 ATTACKS THWARTED”
Text from a presentation given by Gen. Keith Alexander (July 31, 2013, at a conference)
Administration
“at least 50 threats that have been averted”
Full Quote: “We know of at least 50 threats that have been averted because of this information not just in the United States, but, in some cases, threats here in Germany. So lives have been saved.”
President Obama (June 19, 2013, speaking in Berlin)
Congress
“worked well and disrupted terrorist plots”
Full Quote: “Well, the damage he's done is essentially to reveal a program which has worked well and disrupted terrorist plots. And there are more than 50 terrorist plots that it has played a role in.”
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (June 23, 2013, on CBS News, referring to Edward Snowden)
“54 Attacks in 20 Countries Thwarted”
Full Quote: “54 Attacks in 20 Countries Thwarted By NSA Collection”
House Intelligence Committee (July 23, 2013, in a statement)
“stopped and thwarted terrorist attacks”
Full Quote: “Fifty-four times this and the other program stopped and thwarted terrorist attacks both here and in Europe, saving real lives. This isn’t a game. This is real. It will have a real consequence.”
Rep. Mike Rogers (July 24, 2013, in remarks on the floor of the House)
“directly effective in thwarting and derailing 54 terrorist attacks”
Full Quote: “I know that these programs have been directly effective in thwarting and derailing 54 terrorist attacks internationally, and 12 of which have been directly prevented from happening on U.S. soil.”
Rep. Jim Langevin (Aug. 13, 2013, in a town hall meeting)
“we know has thwarted 54 terrorist plots”
Full Quote: “The Amash amendment would have eliminated Section 215 of the Patriot Act which we know has thwarted 54 terrorist plots against the US (and counting). ”
Rep. Joe Heck (July 25, 2013, in a statement)
“programs in question have thwarted 54 specific plots”
Full Quote: “At the same time, the programs in question have thwarted 54 specific plots, many targeting Americans on American soil. I have reviewed the documents; lives have been saved.”
Rep. Brad Wenstrup (July 24, 2013, in a statement)
“able to interrupt 54 different terrorist plots”
Full Quote: “Here’s what they did: If they pick up a phone off of a terrorist in Afghanistan, let’s say, for instance, and they determine that on this phone they were calling an American number, they went back and could search that database to be able to determine who were they calling and how long were they calling and who else were they calling, to see if there was a web that’s connected to that. And that’s been used 54 times to be able to interrupt 54 different terrorist plots here in the United States that had originated from overseas in the past eight years. That’s documented.”
Rep. James Lankford (Aug. 13, 2013, in a town hall meeting)
“54 terrorist plots that have been foiled by the NSA programs”
Full Quote: “As Chairman of the House Intelligence Subcommittee on Oversight, I am glad Full Committee Chairman Mike Rogers has made available for Members of Congress classified documents regarding 54 terrorist plots that have been foiled by the NSA programs which were recently leaked.”
Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (July 19, 2013, in a statement)
Media
“42 terrorist plots were disrupted”
Full Quote: “Speaking at a conference in Baltimore, Alexander said that because of the surveillance programs, 42 terrorist plots were disrupted and 12 individuals were identified as having provided material support to terrorist groups.”
“Surveillance Aided 54 Cases, NSA Says,” by Peter Finn, June 28, 2013
“The government asserted that 50 plots had been thwarted”
Full Quote: “The government asserted that 50 plots had been thwarted by the programs and disclosed information about several of them as examples; by this week, General Alexander had increased the total to 54 during a speech at a cybersecurity conference.”
“After Leaks, Obama Leads Wide Effort on Damage Control,” by Peter Baker, June 29, 2013
Note: Alexander did not say the program had thwarted 54 plots. He described “54 cases” in the speech the Times cited, 42 of which “involved” disrupted plots.
“the government programs have helped prevent 50 terrorist attacks”
Full Quote: “You just said that, as you testified to Congress this week, that the government programs have helped prevent 50 terrorist attacks. (This comment comes minutes after Alexander refers to “over 50 cases where these contributed to the understanding and, in many cases, disruption of terrorist plots.”)”
George Stephanopoulos (June 23, 2013, on ABC News)
“more than 50 plots have been thwarted”
Full Quote: “And this is the person, Keith Alexander, who's been on the hot seat now for quite some time, having to answer a lot of these tough questions about the U.S. surveillance programs, has defended it saying that more than 50 plots have been thwarted because of these surveillance programs.”
Dan Lothian (June 23, 2013, on CNN)
“Fifty-six terror plots here and abroad have been thwarted”
Full Quote: “You just heard what he said, Senator. Fifty-six terror plots here and abroad have been thwarted by the NASA (sic) program. So what`s wrong with it, then, if it`s managed to stop 56 terrorist attacks? That sounds like a pretty good record.”
Bob Schieffer (July 28, 2013, on CBS News)
Commentators
“Gen. Keith Alexander, the director of NSA, has testified that the U.S. government disrupted 54 terrorist plots and plans”
Full Quote: “The fact is that because of the NSA program and other changes in the intelligence community, we have not had a successful attack by foreign terrorists since 9/11. Gen. Keith Alexander, the director of NSA, has testified that the U.S. government disrupted 54 terrorist plots and plans. The government did this by using information collected under the NSA telephone surveillance and Internet interception programs. For example, an intercepted email from a terrorist in Pakistan led to the interruption of the New York subway bombing plot in 2009, Alexander said.”
Ronald Kessler, former Washington Post reporter (Aug. 23, 2013, in a Politico op-ed)
Note: Alexander has never testified that the NSA disrupted 54 plots. He testified in June that the programs had helped “prevent over 50 potential terrorist events.”
“aided in the prevention of 54 international terrorist attacks worldwide”
Full Quote: “Intelligence officials have testified that the new authorities have aided in the prevention of 54 international terrorist attacks worldwide — including 13 attacks targeting the United States homeland. ”
Timothy H. Edgar, visiting fellow, Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University (Sept. 26, 2013, in a statement to the House Intelligence Committee)
“54 plots have been foiled”
Full Quote: “There is a very limited number of people who have ever been in the system, and 54 plots have been foiled.”
Jane Harman, director, Woodrow Wilson Center (Aug. 1, 2013, on CNN)
Photos of Keith Alexander, Barack Obama, Jim Langevin, John Inglis, Diane Feinstein and Jane Harman from Getty Images. Photo of Lynn Westmoreland from the AP. Photo of Timonthy Edgar by Peter Goldberg and used with permission from Brown University. Photo of Ronald Kessler by Gage Skidmore on Flickr. Photo of Joe Heck by republicancongress on Flickr.